Modeling epidemics: an introduction to the use of compartmental models for the simulation of epidemics in time and space. [MAT/08, 3 ECTS]

SCHEDULE  Aula G  Tue  02/11  10.30-13.30 

                      Aula G   Wed 03/11  9.30-11.30

                      Aula G   Thu 04/11  16.30-18.30

                      Aula G   Fri   05/11  10.30-13.30

ABSTRACT The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 and 20201 has led to a surge in interest of the mathematical

modeling of epidemics. Many of the introduced models are so-called compartmental models, in which

the total quantities characterizing a certain system may be decomposed into two (or more) species

that are distributed into two (or more) homogeneous units called compartments. This short course will

introduce the notion of a compartment model and the basics of their development. We will begin with the

standard SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, and gradually introduce more realistic models that

account for factors such as age-structured populations, asymptomatic patients, and interventions such as

lockdowns, mandatory mask-wearing, vaccinations, partial and waning immunity, etc. The course will

also address how one may incorporate spatial variation via a partial dierential equation (PDE) model or

additional compartments in an ordinary dierential equation (ODE) model. Some sample python code

will be provided for numerical examples. The course is open to all students; however previous exposure

to dierential equations and basic programming concepts is recommended.