Quantitative Models for Economic Analyses (2009/2010)

Teaching is organised as follows:
Unit Credits Academic sector Period Academic staff
MACROECONOMIA 4 SECS-P/01-ECONOMICS 1st Semester GianPaolo Mariutti
POLITICA ECONOMICA 4 SECS-P/02-ECONOMIC POLICY 1st Semester Carlo Federico Perali
ECONOMETRIA 4 SECS-P/05-ECONOMETRICS 1st Semester Laura Magazzini

Learning outcomes

The course introduces the student to the economic theory underlying economic policy models applied to the analysis of individual and social welfare and general equilibrium of exchange economies. Special emphasis will be placed on the design of mechanisms appropriate to implement social goals. Students are asked to do both pencil and computer homeworks using mathematical programming techniques. The course is assisted by a dedicated elearning web site.

Statistic tools and economic theory will be applied in order to provide students with competences and capabilities to understand and perform empirical analysis of economic phenomena. Empirical problems and applications will be discussed during the course to provide students with the tools and capabilities needed for the analysis of economic data.

GNP, or Gross National Product, aggregate consumption, investment, public expenditure, general level of prices, and its rate of change (inflation), as well as employment, and the rate of unemployment are all macroeconomic variables. The course aims to investigate the determinants of these variables, and their role in making an economy work.
Three markets are involved in this investigation.
First, the market of goods. We shall study it from both the demand and the supply side
Second, the monetary and financial market. We shall pay particular attention to the forces behind the determination of the rate of interest.
Third, the labour market. We shall focus on the determination of the level of wages and on the relationship between wages and general level of prices.
The time frame of the investigation will be both the short run as well as the long run.
The main macroeconomic theories of these three markets will be presented in descriptive, graphical and mathematical language. At the beginning the student will be also exposed to some methodological issues (in particular on the difference between social and natural sciences) and to a brief history of macroeconomics.



Review of statistical inference.
The linear regression model.
Estimation: ordinary least squares.
Inference and testing.
Model diagnostics.
Time series regression.

1. Macroeconomics and the History of Economic Thought
2. National Accounts
3. Further empirical evidence
4. The market of goods
5. The financial and monetary market
6. The IS-LM model
7. Economic growth
8. The accumulation of capital and the technical progress
9. The labour market
10. Unemployment and inflation: the Phillips curve
11. The AD-AS equilibrium model
12. The role of expectations (in short)
13. The open economy (in short)
14. Macroeconomics and Economic Policy

Blanchard, Olivier, Macroeconomia, Il Mulino, 2009. Part II, III, IV and X completely. Part V e VI in brief. Students that follow the course will get access to notes, exercises and further reading list in preparation of the exam.
Findlay D.W. Esercizi di Macroeconomia. Guida allo studio del testo di Olivier Blanchard, Il Mulino, 2009.

Assessment methods and criteria

Written exam

Written exam.

Final examination: Written exam with multiple-choice test and numerical exercises. It will be followed by a short oral examination.